Needling the Presidential Race as a Non-Candidate
Buchanan, Schoen, Shrum and Rollins sound off on how Bloomberg can inject himself into the 2008 campaign
April 14th, 2008
In the February op-ed that officially called off his presidential campaign, Mayor Michael Bloomberg (Unaff.) wrote that he is ready to use his wealth and profile as both mayor of New York and a respected business leader to steer the presidential candidates toward discussing the issues he considers vital to the United States.
His endorsement, he said, might be the reward for the candidate who does this best, as he reminded the audience when introducing Sen. Barack Obama (D-Illinois) at Cooper Union in March. On April 9, Bloomberg also introduced presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) at a specch in Brooklyn.
During Obama’s speech, which focused on the economy, Bloomberg sat stoically to the right of the stage, his legs crossed and his hand on his chin. And while the crowd of college students and political spectators applauded generously throughout the speech, Bloomberg’s hands stayed still until the very end.
Bloomberg has left little question about his agenda: in his more than six years in office, he has banned smoking and trans-fats, launched a nationwide campaign against illegal guns, stressed the need for mass transit, encouraged the integration of immigrants, taken steps to combat global warming and championed education reform, among other efforts. The battles and successes have helped put many of these issues on the national political radar.
He considers all three candidates personal friends, but none have yet done enough to win his support.
“I want concrete examples,” he said, speaking at Georgetown University April 8. “So far, I don’t know that I’ve heard it from any of the three.”
But as a non-candidate trying to influence the race, Bloomberg’s options may be limited, said Pat Buchanan. A conservative author and two-time presidential candidate, Buchanan knows the difference between attempting to sway the debate from within the fray and from the sidelines.
“He’s got a very tough situation, unless he wants to spend some money and really go out on the campaign,” said Buchanan, “and even then, I don’t think he’s going to get an enormous hearing, now that he’s taken himself out of consideration.”
Bloomberg could have some influence if he ultimately chooses to back a candidate, but Buchanan insisted that the further the mayor gets from the city, the more his clout diminishes.
“He’s probably got some ability, some transferable popularity, but I think it’s very small,” Buchanan said. “They don’t know who the hell he is in Pennsylvania. And if they found out, they probably wouldn’t like him.”
None of that will be a problem, said national political observer Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia—provided Bloomberg is willing to invest a sizable chunk of his personal fortune in the race.
If the mayor establishes a political action committee to sponsor television ads calling on the candidates to address certain issues, he could easily make himself a factor, Sabato said.
“Nothing is too difficult for a man worth 10 to 20 billion dollars,” Sabato said.
This would follow the model of the Mayors Against Illegal Guns campaign, which last year used about $20,000 of Bloomberg’s money to fund a targeted television ad blitz urging Congress to give local law enforcement more power to trace illegal gun owners. Print advertisements from the group pressuring presidential candidates to oppose illegal guns appeared in local newspapers in the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries.
But Sabato does not expect that Bloomberg will be able to do much to move the presidential candidates to his position on guns.
“McCain’s a westerner and he has the NRA’s support,” Sabato said, referring to the presumptive Republican nominee and the National Rifle Association. “Obama is hoping to break the Republican stranglehold on the South and the border states and the rural Midwest states. And that would be a killer of an issue for him.”
Bloomberg has already failed once to drum up support for his fight against illegal guns. Except for former Sen. John Edwards (D-North Carolina) and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), every candidate ignored a 16-question survey sent to their campaigns by the Mayors Against Illegal Guns.
Whether Bloomberg plans to fund similar campaigns centered on his other key issues remains unclear. A spokesperson for the mayor declined to comment on Bloomberg’s plans to influence the presidential race.
Doug Schoen, a political strategist who has advised politicians ranging from Bloomberg to President Bill Clinton, was one of the biggest boosters of the mayor’s purported presidential ambitions. While he has not consulted with Bloomberg on how to influence the race, he thinks the mayor is now just biding his time—but that this will do little to change his potential to reshape the race.
“He’s keeping his counsel, he’s watching, he’s waiting,” Schoen said. “He could wait six months and still have a dispositive impact on the election.”
While the mayor’s name is being batted around as a potential vice presidential candidate for Obama or McCain, Schoen said Bloomberg would most likely follow the example set by Microsoft founder Bill Gates, who last year announced his intention to spend $60 million to bump education up on the presidential agenda.
“If he felt he could make a difference on the gun issue, do I think he would spend that kind of money? Yeah, I think he might,” Schoen said.
Robert Shrum, a Democratic consultant who was the senior strategist to the 2004 presidential campaign of Sen. John Kerry (D-Massachusetts), said Bloomberg, as the mayor of the largest city in the country, has the ability to get the candidates to pay attention without spending a dime.
“He has a platform,” Shrum said. “He’s in the media capital of the world. He had a kind of faux candidacy for a number of months. Whenever he wants to, he can speak up about an issue, he can talk to candidates.”
Bloomberg, a Democrat who switched to the Republican Party to run for mayor and then dropped that affiliation as well, is widely seen as a figure that transcends political parties, Shrum said. With so many swing voters up for grabs, that will necessarily make both nominees eager to have his endorsement.
“He exemplifies a lot of what the country wants right now,” he said. “He’s in the seam of the national mood.”
But Bloomberg could instead become a media pundit, skipping an endorsement and instead sounding off on the race while boosting his own issues, said Robert Shapiro, a Columbia University political science professor who specializes in public opinion and presidential elections.
To have a real impact in doing this, though, Shapiro said Bloomberg would need to be more sensational than he is known for being.
“He would have to start saying very outrageous things—like being so sufficiently unhappy with both candidates that he would support a third candidate,” Shapiro said.
As his term winds down, Bloomberg’s hopes of influencing the presidential race are diminishing, said Ed Rollins, the former Reagan aide who was national chairman of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s (R) unsuccessful campaign for the Republican nomination.
“His millions and billions aren’t relevant in this particular race,” Rollins said bluntly. “At this point in time, he can give twenty-two hundred bucks like any other citizen, and he can go vote.”
His endorsement, he said, might be the reward for the candidate who does this best, as he reminded the audience when introducing Sen. Barack Obama (D-Illinois) at Cooper Union in March. On April 9, Bloomberg also introduced presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) at a specch in Brooklyn.
During Obama’s speech, which focused on the economy, Bloomberg sat stoically to the right of the stage, his legs crossed and his hand on his chin. And while the crowd of college students and political spectators applauded generously throughout the speech, Bloomberg’s hands stayed still until the very end.
Bloomberg has left little question about his agenda: in his more than six years in office, he has banned smoking and trans-fats, launched a nationwide campaign against illegal guns, stressed the need for mass transit, encouraged the integration of immigrants, taken steps to combat global warming and championed education reform, among other efforts. The battles and successes have helped put many of these issues on the national political radar.
He considers all three candidates personal friends, but none have yet done enough to win his support.
“I want concrete examples,” he said, speaking at Georgetown University April 8. “So far, I don’t know that I’ve heard it from any of the three.”
But as a non-candidate trying to influence the race, Bloomberg’s options may be limited, said Pat Buchanan. A conservative author and two-time presidential candidate, Buchanan knows the difference between attempting to sway the debate from within the fray and from the sidelines.
“He’s got a very tough situation, unless he wants to spend some money and really go out on the campaign,” said Buchanan, “and even then, I don’t think he’s going to get an enormous hearing, now that he’s taken himself out of consideration.”
Bloomberg could have some influence if he ultimately chooses to back a candidate, but Buchanan insisted that the further the mayor gets from the city, the more his clout diminishes.
“He’s probably got some ability, some transferable popularity, but I think it’s very small,” Buchanan said. “They don’t know who the hell he is in Pennsylvania. And if they found out, they probably wouldn’t like him.”
None of that will be a problem, said national political observer Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia—provided Bloomberg is willing to invest a sizable chunk of his personal fortune in the race.
If the mayor establishes a political action committee to sponsor television ads calling on the candidates to address certain issues, he could easily make himself a factor, Sabato said.
“Nothing is too difficult for a man worth 10 to 20 billion dollars,” Sabato said.
This would follow the model of the Mayors Against Illegal Guns campaign, which last year used about $20,000 of Bloomberg’s money to fund a targeted television ad blitz urging Congress to give local law enforcement more power to trace illegal gun owners. Print advertisements from the group pressuring presidential candidates to oppose illegal guns appeared in local newspapers in the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries.
But Sabato does not expect that Bloomberg will be able to do much to move the presidential candidates to his position on guns.
“McCain’s a westerner and he has the NRA’s support,” Sabato said, referring to the presumptive Republican nominee and the National Rifle Association. “Obama is hoping to break the Republican stranglehold on the South and the border states and the rural Midwest states. And that would be a killer of an issue for him.”
Bloomberg has already failed once to drum up support for his fight against illegal guns. Except for former Sen. John Edwards (D-North Carolina) and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), every candidate ignored a 16-question survey sent to their campaigns by the Mayors Against Illegal Guns.
Whether Bloomberg plans to fund similar campaigns centered on his other key issues remains unclear. A spokesperson for the mayor declined to comment on Bloomberg’s plans to influence the presidential race.
Doug Schoen, a political strategist who has advised politicians ranging from Bloomberg to President Bill Clinton, was one of the biggest boosters of the mayor’s purported presidential ambitions. While he has not consulted with Bloomberg on how to influence the race, he thinks the mayor is now just biding his time—but that this will do little to change his potential to reshape the race.
“He’s keeping his counsel, he’s watching, he’s waiting,” Schoen said. “He could wait six months and still have a dispositive impact on the election.”
While the mayor’s name is being batted around as a potential vice presidential candidate for Obama or McCain, Schoen said Bloomberg would most likely follow the example set by Microsoft founder Bill Gates, who last year announced his intention to spend $60 million to bump education up on the presidential agenda.
“If he felt he could make a difference on the gun issue, do I think he would spend that kind of money? Yeah, I think he might,” Schoen said.
Robert Shrum, a Democratic consultant who was the senior strategist to the 2004 presidential campaign of Sen. John Kerry (D-Massachusetts), said Bloomberg, as the mayor of the largest city in the country, has the ability to get the candidates to pay attention without spending a dime.
“He has a platform,” Shrum said. “He’s in the media capital of the world. He had a kind of faux candidacy for a number of months. Whenever he wants to, he can speak up about an issue, he can talk to candidates.”
Bloomberg, a Democrat who switched to the Republican Party to run for mayor and then dropped that affiliation as well, is widely seen as a figure that transcends political parties, Shrum said. With so many swing voters up for grabs, that will necessarily make both nominees eager to have his endorsement.
“He exemplifies a lot of what the country wants right now,” he said. “He’s in the seam of the national mood.”
But Bloomberg could instead become a media pundit, skipping an endorsement and instead sounding off on the race while boosting his own issues, said Robert Shapiro, a Columbia University political science professor who specializes in public opinion and presidential elections.
To have a real impact in doing this, though, Shapiro said Bloomberg would need to be more sensational than he is known for being.
“He would have to start saying very outrageous things—like being so sufficiently unhappy with both candidates that he would support a third candidate,” Shapiro said.
As his term winds down, Bloomberg’s hopes of influencing the presidential race are diminishing, said Ed Rollins, the former Reagan aide who was national chairman of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s (R) unsuccessful campaign for the Republican nomination.
“His millions and billions aren’t relevant in this particular race,” Rollins said bluntly. “At this point in time, he can give twenty-two hundred bucks like any other citizen, and he can go vote.”
