Mayor’s Race
Michael Bloomberg vs. Bill Thompson
Barring a shock—and Bill Thompson’s campaign insists there
will be one—the story of the mayor’s race will likely be about the margin of
victory. Michael Bloomberg has been racing around the city and saturating the
airwaves in the final days of the campaign, which to many observers looks like
an effort to run up the tally.
Looking to overcome the curse that seems to hang over third terms, Bloomberg will be after as many votes and percentage points he can manage for the sake of claiming a huge mandate. Thompson, meanwhile, will have to hope for the sake of his own political future that the margin is small. If, lacking money and the support from most of the traditional forces that have this year largely proven unwilling to cross the mayor, Thompson comes close, he will be someone talked about for a statewide race next year—both state comptroller and lieutenant governor rumors are circulating—or for another run at Gracie Mansion in 2013.
Staten Island Borough President
Jim Molinaro vs. John Luisi
The man standing in Molinaro’s way as he pushed for a third
term is his 2005 opponent, community activist John Luisi. The two have an
acrimonious relationship. On the trail, Molinaro has taken to reminding voters
that Luisi is unprepared for local government and fails to understand the
responsibility that comes with the job.
Molinaro has amassed more than $830,000 in his campaign
account and is spending three times more than Luisi.
For Molinaro, though, the power of incumbency also has a
downside. He had several embarrassing moments last year, including $750,000 he
spent in discretionary funds for tropical fish tanks at the Staten Island
ferry. Nearly all of them died. Molinaro was also hit with charges of cronyism
in his appointments.
While the borough president has an advantage, Luisi has made
this a tough fight. In 2005 he won a surprising 42 percent of the vote despite
zero name recognition, money, or even support from his own party.
This year, Luisi is making a stronger run against Molinari. He is better known now that he is running a second time and is getting on-the-ground support from the Democratic Party in Staten Island. Luisi is banking on the anti-incumbent mood and anger over the term limits extension to put him over the top this year.
19th District: Bayside, College Point, Whitestone, Douglaston, Little Neck
Dan Halloran vs. Kevin Kim
In the northeastern Queens race to replace Tony Avella, both
Democrat Kevin Kim and Republican Dan Halloran must be relieved that this
bloodbath is finally coming to a close.
It all began on Sept. 17, two days after Kim won the
Democratic primary, when the Queens
Tribune—a weekly newspaper with strong ties to Kim’s campaign—ran an
article calling Halloran’s religious beliefs into question and dubbing him a
“Pagan Lord.”
Because of this and subsequent articles, Halloran’s campaign
has since accused Kim of religion-baiting.
Kim’s backers, meanwhile, say Halloran’s religious beliefs
are anti-Semitic and have accused Halloran of race baiting.
Oddly enough, all of the publicity may work in Halloran’s
favor. What could have been a sleepy Council race—in which uninformed Democrats
would simply vote for the Democratic candidate—has instead gotten substantial
media coverage, even if some of it has negatively portrayed Halloran.
Kim will win if he can pull out Asian-American voters like he did in the primary and if he can attract some votes from the district’s white Democrats. Halloran could win if his anti-development message has gotten through, if conservative white Democrats feel more comfortable voting for him than Kim, and if Bloomberg voters decide to also vote for Halloran on the Independence or GOP lines.
20th District: Flushing
Yen Chou vs. Peter Koo
In the Flushing race to replace John Liu, the general election
comes down to two first generation Chinese-American candidates.
Given the overwhelming Democratic voter registration, Chou
appears a strong favorite. But Koo does have a few advantages working for him,
including strong name recognition in a community where he has a business leader
for decades. He also has gotten the cross-endorsement of several influential
Democrats, including Korean-American leader Terence Park and Sephardic Jewish
leader Isaac Sasson. Lastly, Koo has dropped over $200,000 into the race,
leading Chou to dub him the “Asian Michael Bloomberg.”
Koo’s road to victory, however, is difficult to see, given that he and Chou are likely to divide the Chinese-American vote, while other ethnic groups will likely vote Democratic. Anti-Chou sentiment following a nasty Democratic primary will have to run deeper than anticipated in order for Koo to pull out a victory.
29th District: Forest Hills, Rego Park, Kew Gardens
Karen Koslowitz vs. Lynn Schulman
In the race to replace Melinda Katz, Karen Koslowitz and
Lynn Schulman will again face off after a tight primary race in which Koslowitz
edged out Schulman for the Democratic nomination by a few hundred votes.
This time, however, Koslowitz appears to be holding all the
cards. The Working Families Party, which backed Schulman in the primary, is
staying out of the general election, believing that Schulman cannot win running
on the third party line. The Hotel and Motel Trades, perhaps Schulman’s
strongest primary supporter, has now moved to Koslowitz’s camp.
Schulman is trying to overcome the odds by running an
aggressive multi-media and Facebook campaign.
When Schulman looks back on the race, it may be the primary election—when the WFP did not offer her with as many resources as their other priority candidates, but she came within a hair’s breadth of victory—that will sting the most.
30th District: Maspeth, Middle Village, Glendale
Elizabeth Crowley vs. Tom Ognibene
Republicans argue that Crowley swept to victory in a
traditionally conservative district on Barack Obama’s coattails last year,
knocking out Anthony Como in a surprise. Their candidate held the seat from
1993 until 2001, and his backers say he knows the district better than anyone
else. His get-out-the-vote effort may not be as formidable as Crowley’s, which
has been buttressed by the Working Families Party, but GOP operatives and aides
to Michael Bloomberg—whose campaign is helping Ognibene—say Ognibene knows
where to find the pockets of Republican votes in the district, and has courted
them aggressively. Strategists from both parties suggest keeping an eye on
returns from Maspeth, an enclave of conservative Democrats that has fast become
the central battleground in this race.
The result is also likely to be seen as a barometer of the partisan mood in the district and a bellwether for a crucial State Senate race next year. If Ognibene wins, that could spell trouble for freshman State Sen. Joseph Addabbo, whose district overlaps heavily with this Council district.
32nd District: Ozone Park, Howard Beach, Rockaway
Eric Ulrich vs. Frank Gulluscio
Ulrich, a Republican, won the seat in a non-partisan special
election earlier this year, and even Democratic observers are surprised at how
aggressively he has fought back a challenge from Frank Gulluscio, a former aide
to Ulrich’s predecessor, now-State Sen. Joseph Addabbo. Gulluscio was seen as
the heir apparent to Addabbo, but he was kicked off the ballot in the special
election, and Ulrich has had a little less than nine months to put down roots
in the district and build up his name recognition. He has also partnered
closely with Michael Bloomberg’s campaign, which will likely provide crucial
get-out-the-vote support today by targeting the district’s Republican-friendly
neighborhoods.
Gulluscio will have his own backers, especially among organized labor, which has made this race one of its highest priorities this year. At one point, Gulluscio was considered an “underdog” even by Addabbo, who has been deeply involved in the race and helped Gulluscio round up union support. Operatives on the ground expect this to be one of tonight’s closest races, with some predicting that a clear result may not be apparent for several days.
34th District: Williamsburg, Bushwick, Ridgewood
Diana Reyna vs. Maritza Davila
In this rematch with Davila running on the Working Families Party
line, the challenger retains the support of Assembly Member Vito Lopez, the Brooklyn
Democratic leader, who has taken some flack for continuing to back Davila over
Reyna, despite her Democratic primary victory.
Davila faces long odds running on the WFP line. But after
narrowly losing to Reyna in the primary, she cannot be discounted in the
general election, given Lopez’s strong influence in the Council district, which
overlaps with his Assembly district.
For instance, the Roman Catholic bishop of Brooklyn, Nicholas DiMarzio, in a robo-call is now urging all voters in the district to support Lopez—and, by extension, Davila—in a unusually strong political statement for a religious leader.
36th District: Bedford-Stuyvesant, Crown Heights
Al Vann vs. Mark Winston Griffith
Griffith, a neighborhood activist and former executive
director of the Drum Major Institute, is running on the Working Families Party
line after losing to Vann in the primary by less than 700 votes. In a nine-way
field, Vann won just over a third of the vote, and Griffith is hoping that the
anti-incumbent sentiment in a head-to-head race will propel him to victory.
In
such a thoroughly Democratic district—in many ways, it is the epicenter of
black politics in Brooklyn—challenging an entrenched incumbent would normally
be a fool’s errand. But Griffith is hoping Bill Thompson’s presence at the top
of the Working Families Party ticket will help draw some Democratic voters to
his line, and make it easier for party stalwarts to vote for him rather than
Vann.
He has also pulled out two important endorsements from Council Member Charles Barron and the Rev. Al Sharpton, whom Griffith’s camp hopes will help him make inroads with the older black voters who would ordinarily go for Vann.
51st District: Arden Heights, Bay Terrace, Tottenville, Great Kills,
Vinny Ignizio vs. Janine Materna
Staten Island’s South Shore is arguably the reddest of the
Republican districts in the city. Rarely does a Democrat ever pull votes from
this area.
But Democrats are hopeful that Janine Materna, a business
consultant, can at least make her race against Council Member Vincent Ignizio
competitive.
She has out-raised previous Democratic nominees and
campaigned relentlessly, even taking leave from her full-time job. Materna’s
mantra on the campaign trail is bringing city services to the district,
including dollars for transportation and special needs education.
As the incumbent, Ignizio naturally emphasized his
accomplishments such as funds for environmental clean up of a landfill and new
park-and-rides. He also boasts of his bills that are signed into law despite
being in Council’s small minority.
In 2004, Ignizio, a proud conservative, was a former
Assembly member who knocked off a long-time Republican incumbent at the behest
of the borough GOP. A year later, he then ran in the special election to fill
Andrew Lanza’s seat when he moved up to the State Senate.
Ignizio easily crushed his Democratic opponent in his special election. This will be his first general election where he faces competition.
