With a special session of the legislature slated for next week, supporters of same-sex marriage say they are closer than ever to achieving passage, despite midterm elections this week that saw a wave of Republican victories around the state and a series of setbacks for gay marriage around the country.

Yesterday, members of the administration of Gov. David Paterson put gay marriage on the agenda for the upcoming session, and according to several Democratic Senate insiders, conference leader John Sampson has said that a bill will come to the Senate floor for a full vote if a majority of the 32 Senate Democrats favor it. According to City Hall’s most recent count, 21 Democratic Senators have expressed that they are in favor of passage, however several of those have said they would prefer it if a bill did not come to the floor right now.

“I think that Sampson and [Senate President Pro Tem Malcolm] Smith and [Majority Leader Pedro] Espada will bring it to the members and we'll go from there,” said Sen. Antoine Thompson.  “My understanding is, at the end of the day, I think we still need four or five Republican votes to pass it.”

But privately, many say they would prefer the Senate to not take up the issue, fearful that a backlash may ensue, especially in swing districts.

“Some people don’t want to vote,” said Sen. Diane Savino, a strong backer of the legislation. “If it doesn’t come up, you don’t have to worry about it.”

In many respects, a legislative push could not come at a worse time. In addition to a wave of G.O.P gains on Tuesday in the swing districts around New York City, gay marriage advocates saw voters in Maine reject same-sex marriage in a referendum and voters in Washington pass an expanded domestic partnership law by a tiny margin.

A spokeswoman from Sampson’s office however said that Tuesday’s election results would not affect the majority leader’s decision to bring a bill forward or not.

“That won’t have an impact,” said Selvena Brooks, Sampson’s spokeswoman. “Senator Sampson remains in communication with [openly gay and strong marriage advocate] Senator [Tom] Duane as well as members of both the Republican and Democratic conferences in terms of moving the legislation forward.”

And despite the expressed confidence of Senatorial sponsors like Savino and Duane, many gay marriage advocates have become resigned to the idea that a bill is unlikely to pass.

Last month, Empire State Pride Agenda executive director Alan Van Capelle all but threatened wavering Senators with primary challenges if they did not vote the right way on marriage equality.

“We have campaigned for you, we have raised money for you, we have supported you in every way imaginable,” he said, in a fiery address directed at Democratic senators at the group’s annual fall gala. “We can find other friends who can do that job for us and do it better than you.”

But Van Capelle has begun to distance himself from those remarks, saying now that merely seeing a bill brought to the floor would be evidence of progress.

“I think right now this is not an issue of vote-counting anymore,” Van Capelle said. “Actions speak louder than words, and it's important for them not just to vote the right way but to bring this issue to the floor.” 

Senators who support the legislation however have continued their push. They have taken to bringing electoral maps to undecided Senators that show that Assembly members from their districts have voted in favor of the legislation without suffering consequences at the ballot box.