The Conservative Party has a message for Rudy Giuliani: If
it be now, ‘tis not to come.
“How long are we going to wait for Hamlet to make a
decision?” said Thomas Cook, the Monroe County Conservative chairman. “The
impression is that Rudy is not going to run.”
Emboldened by their success in forcing a moderate
Republican, Dede Scozzafava, out of the upstate congressional race earlier this
month, and anxious to wield their newfound clout, Conservative Party leaders
are preparing to take a more active role in the Republican nominating process
for next year’s statewide elections. The first hint of that strategy seemed to
come on Tuesday, when Cook endorsed Rick Lazio for governor, and became the
first Conservative chairman to weigh in on the 2010 elections.
While Cook’s endorsement may not mean much beyond the
boundaries of his home county, Conservative Party officials say the decision
heralds a slew of impending endorsements from other Conservative chairman
across the state. Those chairmen, party officials say, are eager to flex their
muscle after stirring a conservative uprising in the North Country, and hope to
generate enough momentum to prod the hemming-and-hawing Giuliani into either
declaring his candidacy or leaving the race.
“This could certainly act as a signal,” said Mike Long, the
state Conservative chairman. “This could have a clear trickle effect.”
Assembly Member Bill Reilich, the chairman of the Monroe
Republican Party, who has been outspoken in his support of Giuliani, said the
state GOP would have to split with Conservative Party leaders if Giuliani
decides to run. This would potentially set up a schism that would pit two
hardcore factions of the New York Republican Party—Rudy boosters and
conservative diehards—against one another.
“What we need to do—we meaning the Republican Party—is we
need to identify the best candidate that gives us the best shot at being
successful in that election,” Reilich said. “If we lose X amount of votes
because we don’t have the Conservative line, but we gain X amount more because
it’s Rudy Giuliani, as opposed to any other candidate, at the end of the day,
more than anything else, it’s votes that count.”
John McLaughlin, one of the central architects of Doug
Hoffman’s insurgent campaign and a longtime Conservative strategist, said the
early movement by Conservative chairmen also indicates that the party is
interested in nominating a Republican for governor rather than engineering a
deal to help attorney general and all-but-declared gubernatorial candidate Andrew
Cuomo, as some have speculated.
“To me, this is a signal that they’re getting ready to run a
serious race for governor,” McLaughlin said. “If I’m a Republican candidate for
statewide office, I really would not relish the idea of a Republican primary
and not having the Conservative line.”
Lazio’s campaign has intensively courted Conservative
leaders for months, in the hope of winning the Conservative endorsement early
on and generating enough momentum to undercut a potential bid by Giuliani. Lazio
has crisscrossed the state to speak at Conservative county dinners, and has
maintained regular contact with Long.
“Obviously, the Conservative Party oftentimes plays a very
influential role, and we value their support,” said Lazio spokesman Barney
Keller. “Rick believes it’s better for the Republican Party and the
Conservative Party to be united behind one candidate, and that’s why he’s
seeking out Conservative Party support.”
Republican operatives and aides to Giuliani cautioned that
Cook’s early endorsement would have no impact on Giuliani’s decision, and
suggested that Conservative Party leaders were simply trying to use the fallout
from the upstate congressional race to aggrandize their role in the Republican
nominating process.
“They’re trying to use what’s happened in the past few weeks to their advantage,” said one political consultant with ties to Giuliani. “They’re trying to fight to stay relevant in the process.”
