UPDATE: Department of Sanitation spokesman Vito Turso emailed in to take his boss’s name out of the speculation, writing: “Mayor Bloomberg announced at a DSNY Awards Ceremony on November 18th that Commissioner Doherty had agreed to stay on in his Administration for another four years.”

Michael Bloomberg did not reveal many plans for his third term over the course of the campaign. But among the promises he did make was a pledge to replace as many as 15 of his 40 commissioners, which he announced at a Crain’s breakfast forum in late October.

The revelation almost immediately sparked chatter as to who might get the ax. And the speculation continues as politicos and City Hall watchers wait for Bloomberg to release his roster for the next four years.

While acknowledging that there will be substantial turnover, administration officials caution that the guillotine is unlikely to make an appearance.

“I don’t think it’s going to be like a slaughterhouse,” one mayoral aide said.

Bloomberg has been criticized over the years for what some characterize as an excessive loyalty to his aides despite calls for their removal. The mayor might have avoided much grief in his second term, for example, if Buildings Commissioner Patricia Lancaster and Fire Commissioner Nicholas Scoppetta had left sooner, and perhaps Chancellor Joel Klein, too.

The Bloomberg ethos, his aides insist, values performance over symbolism, and the mayor is unlikely to undermine his own record simply to appease his critics. If anything, some City Hall insiders speculate, intentionally keeping on the more controversial members of the Bloomberg administration may be a sign that the mayor intends to forge ahead regardless of his small margin of victory on election night.

“I don’t think you’ll see this massive bloodletting from the administration,” a second Bloomberg aide explained.

Still, Bloomberg has huddled in recent weeks with his senior advisers over who should stay and who should go, according to several sources. A sizeable portion of the exodus, most insiders agree, will come from the crop of agency heads who have been with Bloomberg since the beginning of his first term, or at least before the start of his second. Bloomberg may also look to increase the diversity in his administration’s ranks; critics have routinely blasted the mayor for hiring fewer minority commissioners than his predecessor, Rudy Giuliani.

Over the next few weeks, City Hall will be tracking the reshuffling in the Bloomberg world. Send tips for who we should be looking at to editor@cityhallnews.com.

Commissioners who have been in the administration for several years and are viewed as prime candidates to be replaced include Robert Walsh, the commissioner of small business services, and John Doherty, the sanitation commissioner. Lesser-known figures, such as Citywide Administrative Services Commissioner Martha Hirst and Juvenile Justice Commissioner Neil Hernandez, are also in the mix.

Others can essentially be ruled out because their tenures have been brief, or because they are seen as too integral to the mayor’s plans. That list includes: Dora Schriro, the corrections commissioner; Seth Pinsky, the president of the Economic Development Corporation; David Frankel, finance commissioner; Amanda Burden, chair of the planning department; Thomas Farley, health commissioner; John Rhea, chair of the New York City Housing Authority; and Rafael Cestero, housing commissioner. And no one expects Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to go anywhere anytime soon.

One staffing decision is all but certain in the minds of most Bloomberg watchers: Ed Skyler, the deputy mayor for operations, will remain a central figure, and may soon be assigned a more senior position within the administration. He has become an increasingly valued resource for Bloomberg, this year balancing his work at City Hall with debate prep during the campaign. Some see First Deputy Mayor Patti Harris transitioning into the role of senior adviser and Skyler assuming her post; others see an expansion of Skyler's portfolio in his current job. Either way, expect him to remain close to the mayor and very much in power.

Speculation has already begun to swirl around several other big names, including:

Kevin Sheekey

Some City Hall insiders and mayoral aides describe Sheekey, the mastermind behind all things Bloomberg, as “bored,” as one put it. “He has nothing to do anymore,” said a person who works with him. “He’s done everything he set out to do.”

Others, who speak with Sheekey regularly, are doubtful that he could ever leave the mayor’s side. “The mayor is going to want to keep Sheekey close to him,” said one City Hall insider. “I don’t see him putting him off into Bloomberg LP-land.”

Even if the mayor does transition Sheekey into a cushy job at his namesake company—as he did Dan Doctoroff—aides do not expect Sheekey to keep an arms-length distance from the daily business of a Bloomberg third term. “Even if he did go somewhere, he would certainly still be in the mix,” one aide close to Sheekey said. “Nobody can replace the relationship that Kevin has with the mayor.”

Staffers who work with Sheekey expect that if he does stay on, he will likely be the central architect of the mayor’s third term, especially given the historic difficulty of mayoral third terms and Bloomberg’s narrow margin of victory. Aides say they expect another master blueprint akin to PlaNYC, and they expect Sheekey to be the one to execute that plan. “I think Kevin really likes what he’s doing,” one aide who works for him said. “From that perch, you can influence so many things.”

Sheekey did not return requests for comment on his future. But staffers say that Sheekey is likely to guard his intentions until the mayor decides on a comprehensive plan for reshuffling the administration. Those who have worked for Sheekey say that experience suggests the decision will be his alone—and that not even the mayor will be able to sway him if he has made up his mind. As one Sheekey aide put it: “Nothing has led me to believe that anyone determines his destiny other than him.”

Janette Sadik-Khan

Ever since Bloomberg declared that he would be looking to ease out at least a third of his cabinet, critics and even some Council members allied with the mayor have offered a torrent of less-than-charitable suggestions. One head they want on the chopping block: Sadik-Khan, whose aggressively pedestrian-friendly reforms have rubbed some outer-borough advocates the wrong way.

“A lot of elected officials do not like her—Democrats and Republicans—and they have made that known to the mayor,” said one Council member who is close to the administration, adding that it would cost nothing, politically, to cut Sadik-Khan loose. “She doesn’t represent any sort of ethnic group or constituency that the mayor’s trying to pander to.”

Those critics have apparently flooded Sheekey and Skyler with requests to make Sadik-Khan one of the commissioners to get the ax in a third term. But Bloomberg’s advisers and Sadik-Khan herself have indicated to transportation advocates and people close to her that her job is secure. According to a person familiar with the conversation, Bloomberg’s verdict on Sadik-Khan's post-election fate was simple: “More, better, faster.”

“I am of the understanding that people at City Hall and a majority of City Council members are supportive of her tenure, and supportive of her agenda,” said Paul Steely White, the executive director of Transportation Alternatives, which has been supportive of Sadik-Khan. “I think the mayor is inclined to support Janette for many reasons.”

The grumbling from Council members and community advocates, Bloomberg’s aides say, has had no effect on the mayor’s confidence in Sadik-Khan.

“If anything, that would get you promoted around here,” one administration official quipped.

Send your tips on Bloomberg cabinet comings and goings to editor@cityhallnews.com.